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The Guidance Wealth Office will be closed for Independence Day beginning on
Thursday, July 2nd at 3:00 pm. We will reopen Monday, July 6th at 9:00 am. The Markets Blame it on the coronavirus. Stock markets in the United States and Europe retreated last week as the number of new COVID-19 cases increased steadily in America. On Thursday, there were more than 44,000 new cases, the highest daily total to date, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control. “The turn has created a new puzzle for investors, many of whom had started focusing on 2021 earnings expectations as the next performance-driver for stocks. The old market gauges, like manufacturing surveys, jobs tallies, and retail sales, feel like lagging indicators. The new leading indicators deal with the disease. Yet tracking its progress is tricky even for epidemiologists who have studied these issues for decades,” reported Avi Salzman of Barron’s. Another piece of the investment puzzle was reshaped when the Federal Reserve (Fed) released bank stress test results last week. It found most banks were likely to remain well-capitalized if economic growth rebounds relatively quickly. However, in a worst-case economic recovery scenario, banks did not fare as well. Consequently, the Fed suspended share buybacks and capped the dividends banks can pay investors, reported Alexandra Scaggs of Barron’s. “The Fed…also said future payouts would depend on bank earnings – and bank earnings will start to look worse as pre-coronavirus quarters drop out and are replaced by COVID-impaired results. Even that decision might not have been a problem if the market believed the spread of COVID was under control. Then the numbers started coming out. Florida’s seven-day average of cases grew 7.8 percent, up from the previous day’s 4.1 percent. Arizona’s jumped to 5.4 percent, from 2.9 percent. In Texas, the positivity rate – that is, the number of tests divided by positive results – hit 11.8 percent,” reported Ben Levisohn of Barron’s. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, dispelled the notion this is a second wave of the virus. He told The Wall Street Journal, “People keep talking about a second wave…We’re still in a first wave.” The Guidance Wealth Office will be closed for Independence Day beginning on
Thursday, July 2nd at 3:00 pm. We will reopen Monday, July 6th at 9:00 am. The Markets Could it be the upside surprises? U.S. stock markets have marched higher despite a pandemic, an economic downturn, and social justice protests – and a lot of people have wondered why. Greg Rosalsky of Plant Money spoke with Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller about, “…the mass psychology of a gazillion buyers and sellers, who each are telling themselves their own stories about why they're making the trades they're making.” Rosalsky and Shiller discussed some narratives that purport to explain recent market performance, including:
On Saturday, Lisa Beilfuss of Barron’s offered another narrative. She reported: “…upside economic surprises over the past two weeks – mortgage applications hit the highest level since 2008, retail sales rose at the fastest pace ever, and U.S. businesses added 2.5 million jobs in May instead of cutting an anticipated eight million, to name a few – are even better than they look and offer at least some proof that the stock-market rebound was driven by expectations for improving fundamentals…It’s about the magnitude of the surprises versus Wall Street’s expectations.” We don’t know which narratives were responsible, but major U.S. stock indices moved higher last week. The Guidance Wealth Office will be closed for Independence Day beginning on
Thursday, July 2nd at 3:00 pm. We will reopen Monday, July 6th at 9:00 am. The Markets The Nasdaq Composite dipped its toes into record territory last week before retreating. Stock indices in the United States rallied early last week on optimism about the reopening of businesses across the country. The Nasdaq Composite rose to 10,000 for the first time ever, before tumbling lower. Nicholas Jasinski of Barron’s reported, “What caused the rally to sputter this past week? Nothing particularly new or unexpected. On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the long, slow path back to previous levels of employment and economic activity, in contrast to the market’s lightning-fast recovery. Shocking.” On Wednesday, the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) economic projections showed U.S. economic growth declining 6.5 percent this year with unemployment receding to 9.3 percent. In 2021, the Fed expects economic growth to improve, increasing by 5 percent, while unemployment ebbs to 6.5 percent. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said: “The extent of the downturn and the pace of recovery remain extraordinarily uncertain and will depend in large part on our success in containing the virus. We all want to get back to normal, but a full recovery is unlikely to occur until people are confident that it is safe to reengage in a broad range of activities. The severity of the downturn will also depend on the policy actions taken at all levels of government to provide relief and to support the recovery when the public health crisis passes.” Powell indicated low income workers have been hit hardest in this recession and Congress may need to take additional action to help improve the labor situation in the United States. News that the number of confirmed coronavirus cases had risen in several U.S. states, as well as other countries, coupled with the Fed’s modest outlook for the pace of recovery, appeared to kindle investor anxiety and U.S. stocks sold off sharply on Thursday. By Friday, major indices had recouped some losses, but finished lower for the week. The Markets
The employment report electrified U.S. stock markets last week. American stock markets responded enthusiastically to the news U.S. unemployment was 13.3 percent in May. If it seems inexplicable double-digit unemployment would thrill investors, there is a reason. The unemployment rate in April was higher at 14.7 percent, and analysts had forecast the rate in May would jump to 19.1 percent. All in all, that makes 13.3 percent look pretty attractive. There were some caveats. First, “If the workers who were recorded as employed but absent from work due to ‘other reasons’… had been classified as unemployed on temporary layoff, the overall unemployment rate would have been about 3 percentage points higher than reported,” explained the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The same would have been true of April’s numbers, so it’s a wash. Month-to-month, the numbers dropped. Second, there is more than one measure of unemployment. U3 measures people who are unemployed and seeking work. U6 includes unemployed, underemployed (part-time workers who want to be working full-time), and discouraged workers. It’s usually a higher number. The May Employment Summary Report showed U6 unemployment was 21.2 percent, down from 22.8 percent in April. That suggests about one-in-five Americans is not working as much as they would like to be. The BLS wrote the improvement in unemployment reflected, “…a limited resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed in March and April due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it.” The biggest job gains were in leisure and hospitality, construction, education and health services, and retail trade. The lower month-to-month numbers may be a sign the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) worked: “…give some credit to the government relief efforts, especially the [PPP], for bringing back jobs. The program gave relief to small businesses…through loans that would not have to be paid back if most of the money went to rehire and pay employees. PPP money had to be used right away, and a lot of it started hitting small businesses’ bank accounts in late April and early May, which ended up triggering a net gain of 2.5 million jobs in May,” reported Heather Long of The Washington Post. Eurozone stocks rallied last week, too, after the European Central Bank increased its quantitative easing program and extended support to June 2021, reported Dhara Ranasinghe and Yoruk Bahceli of Reuters. Major U.S. indices and U.S. Treasury yields finished the week higher. The Markets
Are those green shoots? In economic terms, green shoots are signs of improvement. If you were paying close attention, you might have seen some in economic data released last week. They weren’t apparent in the Bureau of Labor Statistics report on the United States economy. Gross domestic product (GDP), which is the value of all goods and services produced in our country, shrank by 5 percent during the first quarter of 2020. The contraction reflected lower spending by Americans and American businesses due to COVID-19. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated: “…from March 21 to March 31, when many social distancing measures were in place, spending may have been down by almost 28 percent as a result of the pandemic; spending on accommodations and restaurants declined by 60 percent to 80 percent; and spending for some goods (such as clothing) dropped by similar amounts.” Spoiler alert: The numbers for the second quarter are expected to be far worse. However, economic growth is expected to bounce as consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of GDP, resumes. The green shoots were found in unemployment. As businesses reopened and shelter-in-place orders eased, the U.S. unemployment rate dropped to 14.5 percent during the week of May 16 from 17.1 percent the previous week, according to the Department of Labor. Green shoots were also sprouting from the University of Michigan’s May Consumer Sentiment Survey, which reported “…a growing number of consumers expected the economy to improve from its recent standstill…” The Index of Consumer Sentiment ticked higher from April to May. The United States experienced highs and lows last week. A NASA public-private partnership launched the Dragon capsule into orbit. Its astronauts are headed for the International Space Station. Meanwhile, down on Earth, protests for justice in the death of George Floyd devolved into rioting. Major U.S. indices finished the week higher. |
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