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We remain open and ready to serve our clients, but due to the recent rise in covid cases in our area, our physical office will be closed to outside visitors. If you need to deliver or retrieve paperwork from our office, please call our office when you arrive and we will greet you at the curbside. The Guidance Wealth office will be closed Nov. 26th for Thanksgiving Day. We will also have limited hours on Friday Nov. 27th. The Markets The U.S. economy is like a semi-trailer truck. No one likes being stuck behind a semi at a stoplight because big trucks don’t go from zero to 60 in 2.5 seconds. Neither does the U.S. economy. When the pandemic brought our economy to a near virtual standstill early in 2020, the U.S. government and Federal Reserve (Fed) took extraordinary measures to help the economy get going again:
Government and central bank stimulus helped the American economy get going again. Is slower growth ahead? In recent weeks, however, there have been signs economic recovery may be losing momentum and the virus may, once again, be responsible. Recently, the United States passed a grim milestone. The number of deaths attributed to COVID-19 surpassed 250,000. For perspective, that’s roughly equivalent to the population of Winston-Salem, North Carolina; Irving, Texas; or Buffalo, New York. Last week, some economic data came in weaker than expected and initial unemployment claims ticked higher. Lucia Mutikani of Reuters reported: “U.S. retail sales increased less than expected in October and could slow further, restrained by spiraling new COVID-19 infections and declining household income as millions of unemployed Americans lose government financial support…‘Fed officials are saying they might have to do more and today’s data may turn that thinking into a reality.’” The Treasury curbs the Fed The tools available to the Fed changed last week. The U.S. Treasury announced it will let several of the Fed’s Treasury-funded special lending programs expire at the end of 2020. Alexandra Scaggs of Barron’s reported the programs include:
For these programs to reopen in the future, Congress will need to appropriate new funds. One economist cited by CNBC said, “U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s decision to allow key pandemic relief programs to expire is like stripping the lifeboats from the Titanic.” Not everyone agreed. “Programs like the municipal bond program and the Main Street Lending Program have not worked, in part because the Fed is a central bank. And when you demand that it take on fiscal government tasks…it does that very carefully, and, frankly, very badly,” explained an analyst interviewed on Marketplace Morning Report. Despite changing monetary support, U.S. stock markets remained resilient. Ben Levisohn of Barron’s attributed the stock market’s resilience to positive vaccine news, which “…might not have pushed the stock market higher, but it sure was a reason not to sell.” Major indices finished the week slightly lower. DISRUPTION AND INNOVATION - THANKSGIVING STYLE. Thanksgiving is going to be a lot different this year – and Americans are rising to the challenge. Some are cooking up their favorite recipes and peppering the table with screens so they can share the event from afar with friends and family members. Others are taking the opportunity to move away from turkey and introduce new entrees. No matter what will be on the table, people are finding opportunities to give and reasons to be grateful:
“In my neighborhood, we have decided to divide the Thanksgiving dinner up. Each neighbor participant makes something to share…We will package up our dishes in individual containers to be left on each neighbor's porch at a determined time. The people who are having a difficult time getting by don’t have to contribute anything – neither do the veterans. We will all enjoy our meal in our separate homes but will definitely be grateful for the kindness and generosity of our neighbors and friends.” --Sheryl Smetana, an Axios AM reader “I'm going to have an amazing Thanksgiving all by myself,” Gabriel said. “I will sit on a park bench, and I will think about the great Thanksgivings that I've had in my life and be thankful for them. One bad Thanksgiving out of 63 amazing Thanksgivings – that's pretty good odds. Maybe we should be a little more thankful for what we do have than constantly be complaining about what we don't have.” --Person at a food pantry, interviewed by CBS News A SPECIAL THANKSGIVING MESSAGE TO ALL OUR WONDERFUL CLIENTS The year 2020 AD has been a year of incredible challenge for all of us. Most of us either know someone who has been affected by this virus, or have been directly affected ourselves, both on a business and personal level. We all are missing the human contact, the smiles and laughter and the ability to shake hands or hug one another without hesitation or concern about how a simple gesture of friendship or love could be harmful to us or those we care for. Despite all of these challenges, we somehow find the will and the ability to get together for a day, to spend time with those we love and to give thanks for all the blessings that exist in this bountiful nation of ours. In that spirit, let us pause this week to give thanks to all those who serve others for the greater good, those who protect and defend us, and those who continually strive to make our lives, our communities and our world a better place. Remember also that each and every one of us has a hand in doing our part of that, no matter how significant or insignificant we may consider our actions. This year Guidance Wealth celebrated 10 years as a Private and Independent Wealth Management and Investment Adviser firm. This is a significant milestone which could not have been achieved without our clients, whose loyalty and friendship have made us what we are. All of us here at Guidance Wealth would like to sincerely and humbly thank you for all you do, not only for your own business and the community, but also for our business and the families and communities we help to serve. Our firm exists not only for you, but it also exists solely because of you. Happy Thanksgiving to all, and best wishes for an enjoyable and safe holiday weekend. Weekly Focus – Think About It “Give thanks for a little, and you will find a lot.” --Hausa proverb Investment Advisory services offered through Guidance Investment Advisors, LLC, doing business as Guidance Wealth, LLC, a registered investment adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. SEC Registration does not imply any level of skill or training. * These views are those of Carson Coaching, and not the presenting Investment Adviser Representative or the Representative’s Registered Investment Adviser, and should not be construed as investment advice. * This newsletter was prepared by Carson Coaching. Carson Coaching is not affiliated with the named registered investment adviser. * Weekly Market Commentaries are sent as mass email communications by the designated email address weekly_update@guidancewealth.com. * Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate. * Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features. * The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index. * All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index. * The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index. * The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market. * Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce. * The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998. * The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones. * The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal. * The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system. * International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets. * Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods. * The risk of loss in trading commodities and futures can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The high degree of leverage is often obtainable in commodity trading and can work against you as well as for you. The use of leverage can lead to large losses as well as gains. * Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance. * Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful. * Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. * The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete. * There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk. * Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. * Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision. Sources: https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/cares https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DPCERE1Q156NBEA https://www.brookings.edu/research/fed-response-to-covid19/ https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-retail-sales-lose-speed-as-pandemic-lack-of-fiscal-stimulus-weigh-idUSKBN27X1PC https://coronavirus.jhu.edu https://worldpopulationreview.com/us-cities https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-treasury-is-asking-the-fed-for-its-money-back-heres-what-it-means-for-markets-51605893511 (or go to https://peakcontent.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/+Peak+Commentary/11-23-20_Barrons-The_Treasury_is_Asking_the_Fed_for_Its_Money_Back-What_it_Means_for_Markets-Footnote_9.pdf) https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/20/weinberg-mnuchins-fed-move-is-like-stripping-titanic-of-its-lifeboats.html https://www.marketplace.org/2020/11/20/mnuchin-moves-to-cut-off-fed-pandemic-emergency-lending-program/ https://www.barrons.com/articles/remember-the-fed-put-now-theres-the-vaccine-put-to-bolster-stocks-51605916806?refsec=economy-and-policy (or go to https://peakcontent.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/+Peak+Commentary/11-23-20_Barrons-The_Stock_Market_is_Getting_Support_from_a_Vaccine_Put-Heres_What_that_Means-Footnote_12.pdf) https://www.barrons.com/market-data?mod=BOL_TOPNAV (or go to https://peakcontent.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/+Peak+Commentary/11-23-20_Barrons-Market_Data-Footnote_13.pdf) https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-am-019c54d0-e50a-41f9-8f88-22284fc78778.html https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-19-pandemic-many-reflect-on-what-to-be-thankful-for/ https://www.countryliving.com/food-drinks/g2059/thanksgiving-quotes/ Comments are closed.
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