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The Markets
Like riders on a giga coaster, investors experienced fear and exhilaration during the second quarter of 2025. From April through June, investors rode markets up and down, banking through twists of news and events that had market moving potential. They swooped through the uncertain impact of tariffs on economic growth and inflation; the implications of a U.S. Treasury downgrade; the effects of fiscal policy changes in the Big Beautiful Bill; and conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. Here are some highlights from the quarter:
“The Dow shed 2,000 points in a day for the fourth time in the index's history. All told, U.S. stocks shed some $6.6 trillion in market cap in the past two days based on preliminary figures...That's the largest two-day market cap slide for U.S. listed stocks on record,” reported Connor Smith of Barron’s.
International stocks performed even better than U.S. stocks did. “European stocks, a thoroughly unloved asset class in January, have trounced the S&P 500 by 16 percentage points in dollar terms, the biggest outperformance since 2006…After underperforming the US market every year since 2017, developing-country equities are finally winning, helped by a boom in [artificial intelligence] companies from Taiwan, South Korea and China,” reported Alice Gledhill, Malavika Kaur Makol and Sagarika Jaisinghani of Bloomberg.
Tariffs were the hot topic on earnings calls. They were mentioned by 427 S&P 500 companies. Some companies were concerned about tariffs. Some were not. The head of a financial firm told Sabrina Escobar of Barron’s, “The simple truth today is that we don’t yet know where trade policy will settle, nor do we know what the actual transmission effects will be on the real economy.”
Major U.S. stock indexes continued to move higher last week, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finishing the week at record highs. Yields on U.S. Treasuries moved higher last week after a stronger-than-expected employment report lowered expectations that the Fed might cut the federal funds rate in July, reported Sean Conlon, Alex Harring, and Sawdah Bhaimiya of CNBC. The Markets
Major U.S. stock indexes raced to new highs last week. In a remarkable recovery from April’s double-digit downturn, the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index raced to a new record high last week, and so did the Nasdaq Composite Index (Nasdaq). Key drivers behind the ascent included: Investor optimism. Last week, the “Bull and Bear” investor sentiment indicator rose to its highest level since last November, reported Martin Baccardax of Barron’s. Easing of tensions in the Middle East lifted investor optimism. As the region settled, oil prices moved lower, quelling concerns that rising oil prices would push inflation higher. Consumer sentiment. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index improved 16 percent in June, although it remained 18 percent below December’s reading. Expectations for personal finances and business conditions improved. However, “consumer views are still broadly consistent with an economic slowdown and an increase in inflation to come,” reported Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu. Muted inflation. It was widely expected that higher tariffs would mean higher inflation. So far, that hasn’t been the case. In May, U.S. government revenue from tariffs surged to a record high, reported Jarrell Dillard of Bloomberg, and consumer prices remained relatively steady. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index showed core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 2.7 percent year over year. That was slightly above expectations, reported Nicole Goodkind of Barron’s. Trade optimism. While concerns remain about the impact of tariffs on inflation, investors gained confidence that the outlook for trade is improving. “Trump administration officials have recently softened the focus on the self-imposed July 9 deadline for deals. On Friday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent [said] he hoped to have trade wrapped up by Labor Day and described the latest pact with China as de-escalatory,” reported Reshma Kapadia and Elsa Ohlen of Barron’s. While current market momentum is impressive, “Some market watchers are cautioning that valuations are looking lofty, and that the S&P 500 would need an earnings boom or drastic Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts to justify current levels,” reported Natalia Kniazhevich of Bloomberg. U.S. stocks faltered on Friday after an announcement that trade negotiations with Canada would not take place, reported Karishma Vanjani of Barron’s. However, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq still finished the week at record highs. Yields on longer maturities of U.S. Treasuries moved lower over the week. The Markets
Investors are taking it all in stride. As Israel and Iran exchanged missile strikes last week, stock markets in the United States remained relatively steady, reported Michael Msika and Phil Serafino of Bloomberg. “On June 13th, as the bombs began to fly, S&P 500 futures fell by 1.6 [percent]. But as the hours passed, the stock market steadily climbed. The index has now recovered to around 6,000, a hair’s breadth from an all-time high…consider the long list of recent events that at first seemed to have epoch-making potential, only to fizzle out,” reported The Economist. This is often the case with geopolitical events. Any time conflict flares, it can be difficult to comprehend the potentially world-changing outcomes, much less factor them into stock prices. As a result, many investors ignore geopolitical upheaval. The Economist emphasized this point when it reported that the Israel-Iran conflict joined a “long list of recent events that at first seemed to have epoch-making potential, only to fizzle out…Examples include China’s anti-lockdown protests, the Wagner Group’s rebellion in Russia and skirmishes between India and Pakistan”. So, what has investors’ attention? One answer is economic growth and the performance of publicly traded companies. “The momentum of markets can be relentless. Shares tend to grind higher over time as consumers spend, entrepreneurs innovate and companies grow. Earnings per share for American firms have risen by 250 [percent] or so over the past 15 years. For any event to have a meaningful impact, at least for longer than a few days, it must harm such dynamism.” Last week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell confirmed the U.S. economy remains strong. During a press conference, he stated, “Despite elevated uncertainty, the economy is in a solid position. The unemployment rate remains low. The labor market is at or near maximum employment. Inflation has come down a great deal, but it has been running somewhat above our two percent longer-run objective.” In 2025, diversification has been a sound strategy for managing the uncertainty of geopolitics, reported David Rovella of Bloomberg. “Amid the geopolitical and economic maelstroms of 2025, diversified investors may end up remembering the first six months for something altogether less dangerous or dramatic…the year has still managed to see the strongest stretch of synchronized market gains in years. Rather than spelling a slow-motion disaster for bulls, months of whiplash across equities, fixed income and commodities have rewarded strategic indifference.” Major U.S. stock indexes finished last week lower. Yields on longer maturities of U.S. Treasuries also moved lower over the week. Guidance Wealth will be closed on Thursday, June 19th due to the stock market closure.
The Markets Investors had a lot to think about last week. A wealth of positive company and economic news lifted markets for much of last week. However, markets stumbled on news that Israel had launched an attack against Iran. Here’s what happened: U.S. - China negotiations were positive. U.S. stock markets welcomed news that the world’s two largest economies had successfully established a framework for ongoing discussions. Daniel Flatley and Annmarie Hordern of Bloomberg reported: “The U.S. and China capped two days of high-stakes trade talks with a plan to revive the flow of sensitive goods — a framework now awaiting the blessing of Donald Trump and Xi Jinping…the Chinese had pledged to speed up shipments of rare earth metals critical to U.S. auto and defense firms, while Washington would ease some of its own export controls...” Demand for U.S. Treasuries was solid. The U.S. government issues Treasury bills, notes and bonds to fund government spending. Lately, there have been concerns about whether demand for Treasuries would fall due to buyers’ concerns about tariffs or deficits or both. Low demand could mean higher yields on Treasuries – and higher interest costs for the United States, reported Karishma Vanjani of Barron’s. Last week, there was strong demand for Treasuries. “A closely watched auction of 30-year Treasuries saw stronger-than-expected demand on Thursday, easing for now worries that investors would shun the U.S. government’s longest maturity,” reported Michael Mackenzie of Bloomberg. Inflation remained relatively low. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures inflation, showed headline inflation was up 2.4 percent year over year in May. When volatile food and energy prices were excluded, prices rose 2.8 percent year over year. The cost of energy declined in May, and the price of gasoline dropped 12 percent. “The May CPI came in cooler than expected. While tariff impacts could send inflation higher in the months ahead, the fact that prices held steady so far was an encouraging sign. Odds of a September interest-rate cut ticked higher, and bonds rallied on the news. That has led to rallies in riskier and rate-sensitive stocks,” reported Connor Smith of Barron’s. Israel launched an attack on Iran. Stock markets moved lower on Friday after Israel launched an airstrike that targeted Iranian nuclear facilities and military leaders, and Iran responded. “A full-scale war between Iran and Israel has long represented one of many geopolitical planners’ worst-case scenarios. A conflict that damaged global oil supply or shipping would quickly reverberate in the U.S. and across the world by quickly raising oil prices and sending investors selling stocks for safe-haven assets,” according to Matt Peterson of Barron’s. By the end of the week, major U.S. stock indexes had moved lower. Yields on longer maturities of U.S. Treasuries also moved lower over the week. The Markets
Employment was top of mind for financial markets last week. Economists and investors hoped May employment information would provide insight to the state of the United States economy, as well as clues about when the Federal Reserve (Fed) may lower the federal funds rate again. Employment data arrives in two reports that offer different perspectives on the employment situation. Last week, the trends were similar – new jobs creation slowed from April to May – although the number of new jobs reported was quite different. Here’s a brief overview: +37,000 new jobs per the ADP National Employment Report. Mid-week, this supplemental report showed fewer new jobs were added in May (37,000 new jobs) than had been created in April (62,000 new jobs). “That was a big miss vis-a-vis what economists were expecting, and so we saw a negative market reaction initially. But if you talk to economists, guess what, they say that ADP number is not a very good predictor of the [Bureau of Labor Statistics] number, and they really give it much less weight, if any weight at all,” reported Julie Hyman of Yahoo!Finance. + 139,000 new jobs per the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). On Friday, the government’s Employment Situation Summary reported more jobs were created than economists had anticipated. However, jobs growth slowed from April (147,000 new jobs) to May (139,000 new jobs), and initial estimates for March and April were revised lower. “While the headline number came in higher than expected, previous months were revised lower — a pattern which has been repeating itself for a while now and which has prompted a lot of head-scratching,” reported Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal of Bloomberg. The pair cited a source who believes one reason for the revisions is that key data about U.S. business closures and business openings arrives after the initial report is issued. The unemployment rate, which is determined by a survey of households, remained steady at 4.2 percent in May. “…the household survey found a 625,000 decline in the labor force, which helps the jobless rate since those not in the workforce aren’t counted as unemployed,” reported Randall Forsyth of Barron’s. So, what did the report tell us about the economy and prospective Fed rate policy? “Not as bad as feared but not as good as it looks. That’s what the latest employment data show. But for financial markets, the numbers suggest that the Federal Reserve may be slower to lower interest rates,” reported Forsyth. By the end of the week, major U.S. stock indexes were all in positive territory year-to-date, reported Connor Smith of Barron’s. Yields on longer maturities of U.S. Treasuries moved higher over the week. Guidance Wealth will be closing early at 4:00pm on Thursday, June 5th
The Markets Consumers were feeling cautiously optimistic. When people talk about the United States economy, they’re usually referring to gross domestic product (GDP), which is the value of all goods and services produced in here. For the first quarter of this year, U.S. GDP was nearly $30 trillion. That’s a huge number. It would take 14 years for a military jet flying at the speed of sound and reeling out one-dollar bills to release $1 trillion. The American consumer is the powerhouse of the U.S. economy. Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of GDP. Spending not only supports economic growth, it also provides insight to the health of the economy. That’s because the purchases consumers make reflect consumer sentiment, the job market, inflation, stock market performance, and a myriad of other factors. Last week, a lot of consumer-related data was released. Early in the week, the Conference Board reported that its Consumer Confidence Index bounced back “from a near five-year low”, reported Nazmul Ahasan of Bloomberg. “Consumer confidence rebounded in May following five straight months of declines as a series of new tariff deals improved Americans’ views on the economy… Consumers were less pessimistic about business conditions and job availability in the next six months, and became more optimistic about their future income prospects…Americans were also feeling better about their investments, thanks to the stock market’s May recovery” reported Sabrina Escobar of Barron’s. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index (UMCSI) also showed a change in sentiment, although the improvement was less pronounced than that of the Conference Board’s Index. The final UMCSI reading for May showed consumer optimism stabilized from April to May. “Consumer sentiment was unchanged from April, ending four consecutive months of plunging declines. Sentiment had ebbed at the preliminary reading for May but turned a corner in the latter half of the month following the temporary pause on some tariffs on China goods,” reported Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu. Late in the week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that personal income rose 0.8 percent in April, while prices increased 0.1 percent. The boost in income did not lead to higher spending, though. Consumers spent modestly more in April. Spending was up 0.1 percent, a slower pace than the 0.7 percent rise in March. Americans chose to save in April, socking away more than $1 trillion – almost five percent of disposable income in April. Major U.S. stock indexes finished the week higher. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite Index delivered the best monthly performance since November 2023, reported Connor Smith of Barron’s. Yields on longer maturities of U.S. Treasuries finished the week lower. The Markets
Nobody likes to balance the budget. Some pundits said Moody’s rating downgrade of U.S. Treasuries was a nothing burger. After all, the rating change didn’t provide investors with any new information. Moody’s was the third rating service to lower U.S. government bond ratings. S&P Global downgraded U.S. Treasuries in 2011, and Fitch Ratings followed suit in 2023. However, Moody’s decision focused attention on fiscal policy – the way the United States government taxes and spends. In 46 of the past 50 years, the U.S. government has run a deficit, meaning it has spent more than it received from taxes and other sources of revenue, reported FiscalData. Every annual deficit adds to the public debt, which is about $36 trillion, according to the U.S. Debt Clock. The U.S. government finances annual deficits (and the overall debt) by issuing Treasury bills, notes, and bonds. The U.S. promises Treasury buyers (a group that includes individuals, institutions, and governments) that it will pay interest for a specific period and then repay the amount borrowed. When yields increase, so does the amount of interest the United States must pay When government bond buyers have concerns about a government’s fiscal policy, demand for bonds may fall and yields may rise. That happened to U.S. Treasuries last week. The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond exceeded five percent. “The move above 5 [percent] is striking because that has been the general cap on the 30-year for about two decades,” reported Karishma Vanjani of Barron’s. While higher yields make U.S. Treasuries more attractive to investors, they also may create challenges for economic growth. “As the national debt grows and interest rates rise, the United States will spend more of its budget on the cost of servicing that debt – crowding out opportunities to invest in the economy,” reported The Peter G. Peterson Foundation. The United States is already paying a hefty amount of interest. In 2024, interest payments on the U.S. debt were about $880 billion, more than the U.S. budget for national defense, reported Michael Mackenzie, Liz Capo McCormick, and Ye Xie of Bloomberg. The U.S. isn’t the only country where yields are rising. “From the U.S. to Japan, long-term borrowing costs for the world’s biggest economies have surged as investors question the ability of governments to cover massive budget deficits,” reported Alice Gledhill and Mia Glass of Bloomberg. Over the week, major U.S. stock indexes moved lower amid worries about rising yields and fiscal policy. Yields on longer maturities of U.S. Treasuries finished the week higher. Guidance Wealth will be closed Monday, May 26th in Observance of Memorial Day
The Markets Last week, the U.S. stock market showed why it’s a good idea to stay invested through bouts of volatility. Major U.S. stock indices notched sizeable gains as investors celebrated a trade truce with China and better-than-expected inflation numbers, while brushing off a tepid consumer sentiment reading. Here’s what happened: The administration negotiated a trade truce with China. The United States and China agreed to reduce tariffs for 90 days. U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports will fall to 30 percent, while China’s tariffs on U.S. imports will drop to 10 percent. The Wall Street Journal reported, “The agreement lowered tariff levels far more than Wall Street had expected, with one analyst…calling the deal a ‘best-case scenario’ for investors. Goldman Sachs cut its U.S. recession odds to 35 [percent] from 45 [percent] and boosted its growth forecast.” Inflation is closing in on the Federal Reserve’s target. Prices increased by 2.3 percent year over year in April. That put headline inflation just a smidge above the Fed’s two percent target. When the volatile categories of food and energy were excluded, prices were up 2.8 percent year over year. The price of eggs fell by 13 percent month to month leading a decline in the cost of food. Five of six major grocery store food group indexes moved lower in April. Consumers were concerned about inflation. While the Consumer Price Index’s April inflation numbers were encouraging, the inflation numbers in the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Survey were less so. “Year-ahead inflation expectations surged from 6.5 [percent] last month to 7.3 [percent] this month…Long-run inflation expectations lifted from 4.4 [percent] in April to 4.6 [percent] in May...,” reported Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu. The U.S. bond market was in a less cheerful mood than the U.S. stock market last week. On Friday, Moody’s lowered the rating for U.S. government bonds on concerns about the deficit (the difference between how much the government spends each year and how much it takes in through taxes) and rising interest costs. The rating service explained: “Successive U.S. administrations and Congress have failed to agree on measures to reverse the trend of large annual fiscal deficits and growing interest costs. We do not believe that material multi-year reductions in mandatory spending and deficits will result from current fiscal proposals under consideration.” Over the week, U.S. stock markets saw solid gains with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index moving into positive territory for the year to date. U.S. Treasury yields ended the week near where they started. The Markets
The winds of uncertainty are blowing, and the waters are choppy. In recent weeks, United States stock markets saw steady gains, recovered from the April downturn as investors set aside uncertainty,” reported Connor Smith of Barron’s. Last week, investors became more cautious as they considered: Trade successes and negotiations. Last week, President Trump announced a trade deal with the United Kingdom and, over the weekend, U.S.-China trade negotiations began. “With talks between the US and China about to start, trillions of dollars are hanging in the balance for American companies. The average member of the [Standard & Poor’s 500 Index] made 6.1 [percent] of its revenue from selling goods in China or to Chinese companies in 2024, according to an analysis from Bloomberg Intelligence’s Gina Martin Adams and Gillian Wolff,” reported Rita Nazareth of Bloomberg. The outlook for the economy. Last week, the Federal Reserve left rates unchanged. Fed Chair Jerome Powell offered assurances that the economy is solid, the unemployment rate remains low, and inflation is closer to the Fed’s two percent goal but not there yet. In a post meeting press conference, Powell stated,“…we’ve judged that the risks to higher employment and higher inflation have both risen [compared to March]…there’s a great deal of uncertainty...” The outlook for company earnings. Companies in the S&P 500 Index performed well in the first quarter. Overall, the earnings growth rate for companies that have reported so far is 13.4 percent, reported John Butters of Factset. However, as Butters explained, analysts lowered [earnings per share] estimates more than normal for S&P 500 companies because of uncertainty, including a possible economic slowdown or recession. Last week, major U.S. stock indexes finished flat to slightly lower. Yields on many maturities of U.S. Treasuries moved slightly higher over the week. The Markets
American companies did well in the first quarter. During earnings season, publicly held companies tell investors how they performed during the previous quarter with a particular focus on earnings, which reflect company profits. Currently, we’re more than halfway through earnings season, and companies in the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index have reported solid performance results overall. “Both the percentage of S&P 500 companies reporting positive earnings surprises and the magnitude of earnings surprises are above their 10-year averages,” reported John Butters of FactSet. As of last Friday, 72 percent of S&P 500 companies had reported earnings, and the blended earnings growth rate was 12.8 percent. If earnings stay at this level, we will see a second consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth for the S&P 500, reported Butters. While first quarter earnings were strong, it’s unclear whether future earnings growth will be as robust. “During the month of April, analysts lowered EPS [earnings-per-share] estimates for the second quarter by a larger margin than average…Analysts also continued to lower EPS estimates for [calendar year] 2025,” reported Butters. The reasons for changing expectations may be related to two words that have been popping up more than usual on earnings calls: “tariffs” and “uncertainty”. “Several companies noted that the uncertainty surrounding tariffs is making businesses hesitant about investment decisions. That means they are delaying stocking up on inventory (or in some cases, overstocking), hiring, and dealmaking,” reported Sabrina Escobar of Barron’s. “All the uncertainty has made it hard for companies to make accurate projections for the year ahead.” Last week, major U.S. stock indexes rose. “As of Friday, the S&P 500 index had risen nine days in a row, its longest streak since 2004. It jumped 10.2% in that span – 2.9% of that in the past week – a remarkable performance given the cloud of uncertainty hanging over American businesses,” reported Avi Salzman of Barron’s. Yields on most maturities of U.S. Treasuries moved higher over the week. |
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