​The Markets
 
Investors are taking it all in stride.
 
As Israel and Iran exchanged missile strikes last week, stock markets in the United States remained relatively steady, reported Michael Msika and Phil Serafino of Bloomberg.
 
“On June 13th, as the bombs began to fly, S&P 500 futures fell by 1.6 [percent]. But as the hours passed, the stock market steadily climbed. The index has now recovered to around 6,000, a hair’s breadth from an all-time high…consider the long list of recent events that at first seemed to have epoch-making potential, only to fizzle out,” reported The Economist.
 
This is often the case with geopolitical events.
 
Any time conflict flares, it can be difficult to comprehend the potentially world-changing outcomes, much less factor them into stock prices. As a result, many investors ignore geopolitical upheaval.
 
The Economist emphasized this point when it reported that the Israel-Iran conflict joined a “long list of recent events that at first seemed to have epoch-making potential, only to fizzle out…Examples include China’s anti-lockdown protests, the Wagner Group’s rebellion in Russia and skirmishes between India and Pakistan”.  
 
So, what has investors’ attention?
 
One answer is economic growth and the performance of publicly traded companies. “The momentum of markets can be relentless. Shares tend to grind higher over time as consumers spend, entrepreneurs innovate and companies grow. Earnings per share for American firms have risen by 250 [percent] or so over the past 15 years. For any event to have a meaningful impact, at least for longer than a few days, it must harm such dynamism.”
 
Last week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell confirmed the U.S. economy remains strong. During a press conference, he stated, “Despite elevated uncertainty, the economy is in a solid position. The unemployment rate remains low. The labor market is at or near maximum employment. Inflation has come down a great deal, but it has been running somewhat above our two percent longer-run objective.”
 
In 2025, diversification has been a sound strategy for managing the uncertainty of geopolitics, reported David Rovella of Bloomberg.
 
“Amid the geopolitical and economic maelstroms of 2025, diversified investors may end up remembering the first six months for something altogether less dangerous or dramatic…the year has still managed to see the strongest stretch of synchronized market gains in years. Rather than spelling a slow-motion disaster for bulls, months of whiplash across equities, fixed income and commodities have rewarded strategic indifference.”
 
 
Major U.S. stock indexes finished last week lower. Yields on longer maturities of U.S. Treasuries also moved lower over the week.

Guidance Wealth will be closed on Thursday, June 19th due to the stock market closure.
 
 The Markets
 
Investors had a lot to think about last week.
 
A wealth of positive company and economic news lifted markets for much of last week. However, markets stumbled on news that Israel had launched an attack against Iran. Here’s what happened:
 
U.S. - China negotiations were positive. U.S. stock markets welcomed news that the world’s two largest economies had successfully established a framework for ongoing discussions. Daniel Flatley and Annmarie Hordern of Bloomberg reported:
 
“The U.S. and China capped two days of high-stakes trade talks with a plan to revive the flow of sensitive goods — a framework now awaiting the blessing of Donald Trump and Xi Jinping…the Chinese had pledged to speed up shipments of rare earth metals critical to U.S. auto and defense firms, while Washington would ease some of its own export controls...”
 
Demand for U.S. Treasuries was solid. The U.S. government issues Treasury bills, notes and bonds to fund government spending. Lately, there have been concerns about whether demand for Treasuries would fall due to buyers’ concerns about tariffs or deficits or both. Low demand could mean higher yields on Treasuries – and higher interest costs for the United States, reported Karishma Vanjani of Barron’s.
 
Last week, there was strong demand for Treasuries. “A closely watched auction of 30-year Treasuries saw stronger-than-expected demand on Thursday, easing for now worries that investors would shun the U.S. government’s longest maturity,” reported Michael Mackenzie of Bloomberg.
 
Inflation remained relatively low. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures inflation, showed headline inflation was up 2.4 percent year over year in May. When volatile food and energy prices were excluded, prices rose 2.8 percent year over year. The cost of energy declined in May, and the price of gasoline dropped 12 percent.
 
“The May CPI came in cooler than expected. While tariff impacts could send inflation higher in the months ahead, the fact that prices held steady so far was an encouraging sign. Odds of a September interest-rate cut ticked higher, and bonds rallied on the news. That has led to rallies in riskier and rate-sensitive stocks,” reported Connor Smith of Barron’s.
 
Israel launched an attack on Iran. Stock markets moved lower on Friday after Israel launched an airstrike that targeted Iranian nuclear facilities and military leaders, and Iran responded.
 
“A full-scale war between Iran and Israel has long represented one of many geopolitical planners’ worst-case scenarios. A conflict that damaged global oil supply or shipping would quickly reverberate in the U.S. and across the world by quickly raising oil prices and sending investors selling stocks for safe-haven assets,” according to Matt Peterson of Barron’s.
 
By the end of the week, major U.S. stock indexes had moved lower. Yields on longer maturities of U.S. Treasuries also moved lower over the week.

The Markets
 
Employment was top of mind for financial markets last week.
 
Economists and investors hoped May employment information would provide insight to the state of the United States economy, as well as clues about when the Federal Reserve (Fed) may lower the federal funds rate again.
 
Employment data arrives in two reports that offer different perspectives on the employment situation. Last week, the trends were similar – new jobs creation slowed from April to May – although the number of new jobs reported was quite different. Here’s a brief overview:
 
+37,000 new jobs per the ADP National Employment Report. Mid-week, this supplemental report showed fewer new jobs were added in May (37,000 new jobs) than had been created in April (62,000 new jobs).
 
“That was a big miss vis-a-vis what economists were expecting, and so we saw a negative market reaction initially. But if you talk to economists, guess what, they say that ADP number is not a very good predictor of the [Bureau of Labor Statistics] number, and they really give it much less weight, if any weight at all,” reported Julie Hyman of Yahoo!Finance.
 
+ 139,000 new jobs per the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). On Friday, the government’s Employment Situation Summary reported more jobs were created than economists had anticipated. However, jobs growth slowed from April (147,000 new jobs) to May (139,000 new jobs), and initial estimates for March and April were revised lower.  
 
“While the headline number came in higher than expected, previous months were revised lower — a pattern which has been repeating itself for a while now and which has prompted a lot of head-scratching,” reported Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal of Bloomberg. The pair cited a source who believes one reason for the revisions is that key data about U.S. business closures and business openings arrives after the initial report is issued.
 
The unemployment rate, which is determined by a survey of households, remained steady at 4.2 percent in May. “…the household survey found a 625,000 decline in the labor force, which helps the jobless rate since those not in the workforce aren’t counted as unemployed,” reported Randall Forsyth of Barron’s.
 
So, what did the report tell us about the economy and prospective Fed rate policy? “Not as bad as feared but not as good as it looks. That’s what the latest employment data show. But for financial markets, the numbers suggest that the Federal Reserve may be slower to lower interest rates,” reported Forsyth.
 
By the end of the week, major U.S. stock indexes were all in positive territory year-to-date, reported Connor Smith of Barron’s. Yields on longer maturities of U.S. Treasuries moved higher over the week. 

Guidance Wealth will be closing early at 4:00pm on Thursday, June 5th
 
The Markets
 
Consumers were feeling cautiously optimistic.
 
When people talk about the United States economy, they’re usually referring to gross domestic product (GDP), which is the value of all goods and services produced in here. For the first quarter of this year, U.S. GDP was nearly $30 trillion. That’s a huge number. It would take 14 years for a military jet flying at the speed of sound and reeling out one-dollar bills to release $1 trillion.
 
The American consumer is the powerhouse of the U.S. economy. Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of GDP. Spending not only supports economic growth, it also provides insight to the health of the economy. That’s because the purchases consumers make reflect consumer sentiment, the job market, inflation, stock market performance, and a myriad of other factors.
 
Last week, a lot of consumer-related data was released.
 
Early in the week, the Conference Board reported that its Consumer Confidence Index bounced back “from a near five-year low”, reported Nazmul Ahasan of Bloomberg. “Consumer confidence rebounded in May following five straight months of declines as a series of new tariff deals improved Americans’ views on the economy… Consumers were less pessimistic about business conditions and job availability in the next six months, and became more optimistic about their future income prospects…Americans were also feeling better about their investments, thanks to the stock market’s May recovery” reported Sabrina Escobar of Barron’s.
 
The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index (UMCSI) also showed a change in sentiment, although the improvement was less pronounced than that of the Conference Board’s Index. The final UMCSI reading for May showed consumer optimism stabilized from April to May. “Consumer sentiment was unchanged from April, ending four consecutive months of plunging declines. Sentiment had ebbed at the preliminary reading for May but turned a corner in the latter half of the month following the temporary pause on some tariffs on China goods,” reported Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu.
 
Late in the week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that personal income rose 0.8 percent in April, while prices increased 0.1 percent. The boost in income did not lead to higher spending, though. Consumers spent modestly more in April. Spending was up 0.1 percent, a slower pace than the 0.7 percent rise in March. Americans chose to save in April, socking away more than $1 trillion – almost five percent of disposable income in April.
 
Major U.S. stock indexes finished the week higher. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite Index delivered the best monthly performance since November 2023, reported Connor Smith of Barron’s. Yields on longer maturities of U.S. Treasuries finished the week lower.