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Guidance Wealth will be closed Monday, January 1st for New Year’s Day.
Holiday hours may vary, please call ahead to schedule an appointment before stopping by our office The Markets If all you wanted for Christmas was two percent inflation, you’re in luck! Barring unforeseen events, it appears the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) is on the cusp of accomplishing a feat many thought impossible – reducing inflation without causing a recession. From March 2022 to July 2023, the Fed raised the federal funds rate 5.25 percent – the most aggressive increases in decades, reported Felix Richter of Statista. There was considerable skepticism about the Fed’s ability to bring inflation down to its 2 percent target, especially as prices continued to rise, with inflation peaking at 9.1 percent annualized in June of 2022. As the nation headed into 2023, economists anticipated that rapid rate hikes would lead the U.S. into recession. They were wrong. Last week, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index showed prices dropping from October to November. Headline inflation was:
While rising rates drove inflation down, the U.S. economy continued to grow. So far this year, economic growth (after inflation) was 2.2 percent in the first quarter, 2.1 percent in the second quarter, and 4.9 percent in the third quarter of 2023. The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow forecast suggests economic growth will remain in positive territory, up 2.3 percent, in the final quarter of the year. Falling prices lifted consumers’ spirits. Consumer sentiment improved almost 14 percent from November into December, according to the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Survey. “All five index components rose this month, which has only occurred in 10% of readings since 1978. Expected business conditions surged over 25% for both the short and long run. All age, income, education, geographic, and political identification groups saw gains in sentiment this month,” reported Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu. Financial markets welcomed the news. “…the S&P 500 notched an eight-week winning streak – the longest in more than five years. The Nasdaq 100 and a global gauge of equities logged equally lengthy runs – for the tech-heavy Nasdaq it was the longest since July 2021. U.S. bonds booked a fourth-straight week of gains – their best streak since March,” reported Cristin Flanagan of Bloomberg. Guidance Wealth will be closed Monday, December 25th for Christmas and Monday, January 1st for New Year’s Day.
Holiday hours may vary, please call ahead to schedule an appointment before stopping by our office. The Markets Have rates peaked? Last week, at its final policy meeting for 2023, the United States Federal Reserve indicated that rates may have peaked. After the meeting, Chair Jerome Powell said: “As we approach the end of the year, it is natural to look back on the progress that has been made toward our dual mandate objectives. Inflation has eased from its highs, and this has come without a significant increase in unemployment. That is very good news… “While we believe that our policy rate is likely at or near its peak for this tightening cycle, the economy has surprised forecasters in many ways since the pandemic, and ongoing progress toward our 2 percent inflation objective is not assured. We are prepared to tighten policy further if appropriate. We are committed to…bring inflation sustainably down to 2 percent over time, and to keeping policy restrictive until we are confident that inflation is on a path to that objective.” Powell’s post-meeting comments added to positive inflation news from earlier in the week. The annual rate of inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), fell to 3.1 percent in November from 3.2 percent in October. The inflation picture wasn’t quite as rosy as that number suggests, though. Both headline inflation (+0.1) and core inflation (which excludes food and energy prices, +0.3) ticked higher month-to-month, and core inflation was 4.0 percent over the previous year. The primary contributor to annual core inflation was the cost of shelter, which includes rent, owners’ equivalent rent, lodging, and renters’ and homeowners’ insurance. It was responsible for nearly 70 percent of the total increase in core CPI. Key contributors included:
Global stock and bond markets celebrated falling inflation and the likelihood that Fed rate hikes have ended. Vildana Hajric, Jess Menton, Carter Johnson, and Elena Popina of Bloomberg reported: “Virtually no corner of financial markets was left out of a cross-asset advance which began Wednesday and extended into Thursday trading: Global shares spiked higher, with gauges from the tech heavy Nasdaq 100 to Brazil’s benchmark Ibovespa on track to close at record highs. Short-term Treasuries posted their best day since March, while world currencies surged against the dollar and corporate bonds rallied.” By the end of the week, major U.S. stock indices were at 52-week highs, and the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury fell to 4.03 percent, reported Brian Evans and Sarah Min of CNBC. The Markets
Still exceeding expectations. Last week, the United States Treasury market rallied. Yields fell and bond prices rose as some bond market investors enthusiastically embraced the idea that the Federal Reserve will soon change course. Michael Mackenzie and Rich Miller of Bloomberg explained: “Softening inflation and employment data in the past month have convinced investors that the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates and ignited bets that cuts of at least 1.25 percentage points are in store over the next 12 months. Treasury yields, which touched highs of 5% as recently as October, have declined sharply, with the U.S. 10-year benchmark sliding more than three-quarters of a percentage point.” Bond investors were hoping that last week’s unemployment report would show jobs and wage growth slowing in November. Instead, employers added more jobs than expected (199,000 jobs vs. 180,000), and the unemployment rate fell to 3.7 percent. On Friday, the Treasury market reversed course. Yields on long and short-term Treasury bonds rose sharply and prices fell, reported Karishma Vanjani of Barron’s. The employment report also showed that average hourly earnings increased in November – rising 4 percent year-over-year. Wages have risen faster than inflation for seven months, reported Sarah Foster of Bankrate. However, many workers are still feeling a pinch. “While inflation has come down, broadly speaking, prices have not. There is a kind of continuing, virtual sticker shock that continues to weigh on the minds and pocketbooks of consumers that is meaningful,” according to Senior Bankrate Economic Analyst Mark Hamrick. Last week, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained for the sixth consecutive week, according to Bloomberg, and yields on most maturities of U.S. Treasuries moved higher. |
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